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Market Recap – Week Ending 11/23/18

Update 7:20 am.  Markets are higher globally, with optimism around Brexit and positive developments in Italy sending European indices higher by 1-2%.  In the U.S. recovering oil prices and Cyber Monday optimism are leading futures higher, with the S&P e-mini up about 1% and the Dow up 250 points as of 7:20 am CT. 

Overview:  U.S. stocks saw volatile trading during a holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 fell 3.8%,  pressured by concerns over the global growth outlook and the concurrent sharp drop in the price of oil.  WTI crude oil is now trading down about 30% for the quarter, from $73.25 at the end of September, to about $51/barrel now.  Interest rates fell slightly on the week, with the 10-year Treasury finishing the week at 3.05%, down in yield from 3.15% at the beginning of the month.

This week is chock-full of economic data, led by GDP reporting on Wednesday, followed by reports on trade, home sales, and personal income and spending.  Markets will also be focused on events in Italy, potential progress on a Brexit deal, and upcoming meetings with China on trade.  Finally, look for reports on initial retail holiday spending, and results of Cyber Monday shopping for trends in consumer spending and sentiment.

Market Returns and Data

Index Returns
1 week MTD QTD YTD
Equities
S&P 500 -3.77% -2.79% -9.47% -0.33%
DJ Industrial Average -4.41% -3.13% -7.98% -0.35%
Russell 2000 -2.53% -1.41% -12.12% -2.00%
Russell Midcap -2.48% -1.02% -9.24% -2.47%
MSCI World -2.77% -2.18% -9.36% -4.44%
MSCI EAFE -1.09% -1.08% -8.96% -10.26%
MSCI EM -1.73% 1.43% -7.40% -14.51%
Fixed Income
Barclays Aggregate 0.03% 0.46% -0.33% -1.92%
Barclays Muni Aggregate 0.22% 0.56% -0.06% -0.45%

 

Commodities
11/23/18 10/31/18 09/30/18 12/31/17
WTI Oil ($/barrel) $50.42 $65.31 $73.25 $60.42

 

Currencies
11/23/18 10/31/18 09/30/18 12/31/17
Euro ($/€) 1.1336 1.1314 1.1611 1.2022
Pound ($/£) 1.2809 1.2770 1.3041 1.3524

 

Rates & Spreads
11/23/18 10/31/18 09/30/18 12/31/17
Fed Funds Target ** 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 1.50%
3-Month US Dollar Libor 2.69% 2.56% 2.40% 1.69%
US Treasuries 2-Year 2.81% 2.87% 2.81% 1.89%
US Treasuries 10-Year 3.05% 3.15% 3.05% 2.41%
US Treasury 2-10 Slope 0.24% 0.28% 0.24% 0.52%
German Bunds 10-Year * 0.37% 0.39% 0.47% 0.43%
Spreads
TED Spread (bps) * 29 24 20 32

Source:  GSAM, Reuters